350+ free-roam venues with happy operators!
350+ free-roam venues with happy operators!
In the last newsletter, I wrote about the challenges and headwinds facing the location-based entertainment industry. There’s plenty to be worried about. Inflation (thought the latest Fed report has that down to 2.5%), interest rates (those are about to come down, too), an unpredictable election where half the country is going to be pissed at the results, multiple wars, with at least one US General predicting China will invade Taiwan soon. People are spending less time away from home after the last pandemic, and there’s that bird flu that everyone keeps talking about. Then there’s the real estate market, insurance prices, wokeism, anti-wokeism, Elon ruining Twitter (just kidding I don’t GAF about Twitter.)
Anyone who wants to paint a negative narrative about the world has plenty of palette to work with. It’s easy to be negative.
But you know what?
The people who are successful in this world tend to be optimists. They don’t spend their time wringing their hands about what could go wrong. They display the imagination and courage to talk about what could go right. They dream about the unpredictable things that could change things for the better. And considering the long-term trends towards progress, convenience, lifespans, health innovations, and reusable rockets for crying out loud, we should all be more positive. It even looks like we might finally get those flying cars they promised when I was a kid.
In the early 1900’s J.P. Morgan was one of the richest and most powerful people in America. Way before regulation to the banking industry, Morgan often had to backstop banks himself to stop them from failing. Morgan famously purchased the entire steel operation of Andrew Carnegie for a sum of $480 million, which would be hundreds of billions in today’s dollars. You don’t build that kind of wealth being a pessimist.
In those times there were plenty of pessimists, or as Wall Street calls them “Bears.” No matter how well things are going, bears predict the worst outcome. Legend has it that Morgan was walking through New York with a bearish friend from Chicago, who was admiring the burgeoning skyline with skyscrapers going up everywhere. “We don’t have anything like that in Chicago,” the friend said. “Funny thing about those skyscrapers. Not a single one was built by a bear!”
I was a stockbroker when the market crashed on Black Monday in 1987. Clients called me panicking asking what to do. I asked everyone of them how much money they could invest right then. Many thought I was crazy. Some wanted to sell, and I fired them after liquidating their holdings. They lost their asses. Those who were bold enough to invest on Monday made out like bandits. It took days for the trade confirmations to come back, but when they did, the stocks we bought had already doubled or more. Fortune favors the bold.
The 90s, when the internet came of age, was one of the most prosperous in US history.
Towards the end of that decade, I was a keynote speaker for a real estate software company. I flew around the country speaking at conventions encouraging brokers to adopt technology to increase productivity and enhance their client experiences. The internet and computer technology had driving productivity gains across most industries, but real estate was a laggard.
Today’s version of the internet is Artificial Intelligence. AI is a superpower, and it’s now available to everyone. And while pessimists will focus on the potential negative aspects, and there are plenty, the optimists who realize that it will increase productivity across almost every industry, will place bets. And they will win.
In the short term it has already led to layoffs. But profits will follow, which will lead to hiring, and those people will be back in the workforce. Which will lead to more economic growth. It always does, it’s just a function of how long it takes.
Eventually, optimists have always been right. Look at almost any chart and you will see over the long haul, the trend positive for humans.
Global Life Expectancy Keeps Rising (Except for the COVID blip)
Global Poverty Rates Way Down
Violent Crime is Way Down
And the Stock Market Keeps Going Up
There are things we can do better. And we will, over time. It’s just how progress works. Optimists know this. And they’re busy investing in the future. Will you join them?
If your answer is yes, or even maybe, then join me and few hundred other optimists at the VR Arcade and Attractions summit next March 17-18th in Las Vegas. The theme of the event will be The Downloadable Theme Park. We’ll be exploring the future of fun delivered via software. More bits, fewer atoms.
Everything is Awesome. See you there.
